The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, and the prospect of upheavals in Yemen, Jordan, and Lebanon have completely changed the picture of the Middle East and the future of the War on Terror.  Briefly stated, this was supposed to belong to the radical Islamists, and instead it happened with zero input or help from them.  It has demonstrated, for those who still need convincing, of the political poverty of al-Qaida and other groups who align themselves with a philosophy of political change by violence and terrorism.  On the other hand, the Muslim Brotherhood—who decades ago renounced violence–is sharing the driver’s seat with Mohammed El Baradei in leading the opposition.

Radical, militant Islamists have not fared well in Egypt for other reasons. After a suicide bomber killed 21 worshipers at a Coptic Christian New Year’s mass, Egyptian Muslims banded together to form human shields around Coptic churches throughout the country as a gesture of support for the Christian minority community and to rebuke the actions of the extremists.

For the past several decades, al-Qaida and its intellectual and political allies saw themselves as the vanguard of the force that would bring down the corrupt, mostly secular governments of Arab nations.  They further claimed that they were Islam’s great defenders against the rapine of Western ideas and its war against Islam.  Suddenly, they have become all but irrelevant.  Whether they stay that way will depend in large measure on how the US responds to the revolution in Egypt.

Al-Qaida has set itself up as the protector of Islam from those who war against the religion, but Mubarak, for all his other shortcomings, was not stupid enough to try to curtail Islam as his predecessor Jamal ab al-Nasser did, or the Shah attempted to do in Iran.  With this a non-issue, radical Islamists lost an important handle on the situation.  The issues, rather, were about basic human rights, where Islamists have a record of excesses that weaken their moral standing.

The United States must embrace this opportunity to drive the Islamists further in to irrelevance.  By treating with El Baradei and the Muslim Brotherhood, and doing what they can to persuade Mubarak to step down and not drag out the inevitable, and more importantly if it becomes clear that the US is doing this openly and not trying to manipulate the situation behind the scenes to install yet another Mideast strongman, this would cripple Islamists and Jihadists throughout the region, particularly al-Qaida.  But if the protesters get a different picture, then our troubles in the Middle East will only multiply.

Click here for an  excellent analysis on this aspect of the Egyptian Revolution.